refs itemname	Document
Bibliography	PNG National Weather Service (2023) Seasonal Climate Outlook (Jul-Sep 2023), NWS Seasonal Climate Outlook, Vol.11 (6), 4 pages, PNG National Weather Service, Port Moresby
Associated conference
Abstract / Content summary	The chances of El Niño forming this year has increased with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators reaching El Niño threshold. Although the oceanic indicators through the seas surface temperatures (SSTs) and some atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have shifted towards El Niño threshold, wind, cloud and broadscale pressure-patterns indicate the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are yet to be fully coupled or reinforce each other. The “marrying” or coupling has to happen before the birth of an El Niño is realized. When an El Niño is formed, it can last for many months. In PNG, El Niño usually but not always brings below average rainfall across much of the country which in extreme cases can lead to severe droughts and frosts in the highlands. Although, the country has been receiving very good rains during the wet season, several provinces are still facing dry spells. Drought critical areas have emerged in Enga and Southern Highlands provinces; East and West New Britain and parts of West Sepik continue to be a high-risk levels for the past 3 months. The rainfall forecast for Jul-Aug-Sep shows below normal rainfall scenario for the highlands region , Gulf, Central and the New Guinea Islands region inclusive of AROB.. Momase, Western, Oro, and Milne Bay provinces are expected to receive above normal rainfall. Drought Critical areas have emerged in Enga and Southern Highlands provinces. East New Britain and southern parts of West Sepik remain at Drought Alert. East and West New Britain and West Sepik have continued to be at high-risk levels over the last three months. New Ireland is now of Drought Watch status resultant of recent rainfall.
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files	JAS2023.pdf
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